Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."